China’s engagement with the 149 countries that have cooperation agreements under its Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) has reached a cumulative US$1.175 trillion since 2013, according to a new study.

Released on February 28, the study – by Griffith Asia Institute in Australia and the Green Finance & Development Center of Fanhai International School of Finance at Fudan University in Shanghai – says 2024 was a record year for Chinese BRI engagement with US$71 billion in construction contracts and US$51 billion in investments.

The combined amount of US$122 billion, up 31% from a year earlier, comprised about 340 deals.

The average deal size for big investments greater than US$100 million shrank from US$772 million in 2023 to US$672 million in 2024. But it was above the average for the past 10 years.

Bucking ‘small yet beautiful’ trend

For construction projects alone, the average deal size rose from US$394 million in 2023 to US$498 million.

“For construction projects, this trend is bucking the ambition to have ‘small yet beautiful projects’ in the BRI propagated through official channels,” the study says.

But it notes that most large infrastructure projects are resource-backed deals – in the oil and gas sectors, for example – rather than fiscal spending deals on things like roads.

Construction engagements with the Middle East soared 102% year-on-year to US$39 billion, catapulting the region to become China’s most important partner in 2024.

Africa dropped to second place with US$ 29 billion in engagements, up 34% from a year earlier, followed by Southeast Asia with US$25 billion, a modest increase of 7%.

Greenest year since BRI inception

Green energy engagements in the solar, wind and waste-to-energy sectors – about 30% of China’s energy engagements – came to US$11.8 billion, making 2024 the greenest year since the BRI’s inception in 2013, the study says. Hydropower accounted for an additional US$639 million.

China's overall engagement in the energy sector last year approached US$40 billion, the highest since 2017 and the largest share of the total BRI engagement.

“Two developments stand out,” the study finds. In addition to the record engagement with the green energy sector, “China maintained a continued engagement in fossil fuels, particularly gas, but also coal ( through coal mining ).

“Also, engagement in distribution systems ( e.g., substations and power lines ) constituted more than 11% of Chinese BRI energy engagement.”

A detailed analysis of green energy sources shows that China is engaging in a diverse range of renewable energy projects. Solar ( 46% ) and wind ( 34% ) are the main sources. But waste-to-energy projects ( 7% ) are playing a notable role, and energy storage is becoming increasingly important.

Evolution across energy supply chain

“Since 2022, China’s engagement across the energy supply chain has evolved significantly,” the study finds. “While energy generation remained the primary focus in both 2022 and 2023, 2024 saw a resurgence of fossil-fuel processing facilities ( US$17.1 billion ) and pipeline projects ( US$4.6 billion ).

“Meanwhile, energy transmission, which is crucial for the green transition, has declined sharply from US$ 7.4 billion in 2023 to under US$500 million.”

As for the transport sector – long a cornerstone of facilitating trade between China and BRI countries – engagements in road, rail, aviation and shipping were stable at around US$15 billion last year, albeit about half the amount during the peak years of 2018 and 2019.

Similar performance expected in 2025

“For 2025, a further expansion of BRI investments and construction contracts seems possible,” the study predicts. “On the one hand, there is a clear need for investments to green boost growth to support the green transition both in China and in BRI countries.”

That’s expected to provide opportunities for mining and minerals processing and technology deals in areas like electric vehicle ( EV ) and battery manufacturing as well as green-energy production and transmission deals. China refers to EVs, batteries and renewable energy as the “New Three” industries.

“Furthermore, global trade volatilities and uncertainties can spur investments in supply chain resilience and exploration of new markets by Chinese companies,” the study says.

“However, risks emerge due to uncertainty of possible activities by global financial institutions with strong US board presence,” it says, specifically referring to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

AIIB and NDB opportunities

China-dominated development banks like the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank ( AIIB ) and the New Development Bank ( NDB ) – established by the original BRICS countries Brazil, Russian India, China and South Africa – “should provide infrastructure development opportunities for Chinese contractors”.

“We do expect Chinese BRI engagement to reach similar levels in 2025 as in 2024. Part of this expectation is driven by the growing need of China’s domestic players to invest abroad to seek opportunities in other countries,” the study says. “In line with our previous predictions, we continue to see deal numbers increasing.”

Deal size is expected to be bigger than in 2022 and 2023 and possibly similar to 2024, reflecting “strong engagement” in sectors requiring significant investment like mining and manufacturing compared with sectors with variable engagement like renewable energy.

“For 2025, we see further stabilization of Chinese BRI engagement with a strong focus on BRI country partnerships in renewable energy, mining and related technologies,” the study concludes.

“Global trade and investment volatility will potentially spur further investment for supply-chain resilience and alternative export markets for Chinese companies.”