China’s latest macroeconomic data points indicate the resiliency of the world’s second-largest economy as third-quarter GDP increased by 4.8% year on year, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.

While the growth is slower than the first quarter’s 5.4% and second quarter’s 5.2%, it is still slightly above the market’s consensus of 4.7%, making the official yearly growth target of “around 5%” within reach.

During the third quarter, fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5%, mainly dragged down by the contraction of the real estate sector. Retail sales increased modestly by 4.5%, with service-related sales performing better than goods-related sales. Exports grew strongly by 7.1%, despite the continuing trade tension with the US.

To support investment, the National Development and Reform Commission announced in late September a new policy finance tool of 500 billion yuan ( US$70.15 billion ) to be used as seed capital for key projects in the transportation, energy and technology sectors. As of October 17, 189.3 billion yuan have been disbursed via the National Development Bank, which expects to leverage a total of 2.8 trillion yuan of investments.

The fiscal revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 cumulatively increased by 0.5%, reversing the downward trend in previous quarters, according to the Ministry of Finance. Major tax income, including that from value-added, domestic excise, corporate income and personal income taxes, has increased, indicating revitalizing economic activities.

On the key rate side, the People’s Bank of China have kept the one- and five-year loan prime rates ( LPRs ) unchanged for five months at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, maintaining a thin interest margin for commercial banks. However, with the US expected to further cut its base rate in the next two months, China is also likely to ease its fiscal policy, meaning the LPRs could decrease in the fourth quarter.

The central government’s four-day fourth plenum meeting begins on October 20 in Beijing, with the public expecting the release of the preliminary draft of its 15th five-year plan that charts China’s economic development from 2026 to 2030.